人机联合判断震情的方法与实例

METHOD OF JUDGING EARTHQUAKE RISK TREND BY HUMAN-COMPUTER INTERACTION WITH A REAL EXAMPLE

  • 摘要: 本文以模式识别为基础,利用地震活动、地壳形变、电阻率、地下水、水氡等几种前兆观测资料,提出了人机联合判断震情的方法。根据地震前后实际观测资料与孕震模式所预测的前兆变化,确定了单项前兆异常的定量标准,然后采用模式识别的CORA-3算法与Fisher判别准则相结合的方法,由人机联合,最佳判断未来地震形势。作为方法的实例,本文对华北地区1969年以来的有震(Ms5.8)样本与无震样本进行学习,并对预测样本进行了地震危险性的判别。

     

    Abstract: Based on pattern recognition, using observation data for various precursors, including micro-seismicity, crustal deformation, earth resistivity, ground water level, radon content, we propose a method to judge earthquake risk trend by human-computer interaction. According to observation data before and after earthquakes and precursor phenomena predicated by models of earthquake forerunner, the quantitative index of precursor anomalies have been determined. Then the combination of the algorithm COEA-3 of pattern recognition with Fisher's linear discriminant function have been used to judge the coming earthquake risk trend. As an example, sample with earthquake, sample with no-earthquake and sample that needs prediction in North China have been discriminated from each other.

     

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