Advanced Search
Sun Xiaolong, Xiang Yang, Yang Pengtao. 2018: Earthquake prediction efficiency inspection of water level in Huize well and its anomaly mechanism. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(2): 185-194. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170125
Citation: Sun Xiaolong, Xiang Yang, Yang Pengtao. 2018: Earthquake prediction efficiency inspection of water level in Huize well and its anomaly mechanism. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(2): 185-194. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170125
shu

Earthquake prediction efficiency inspection of water level in Huize well and its anomaly mechanism

  • 1.

    Institute of Crustal Dynamics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100085，China

  • 2.

    Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region，Ürümqi 830011，China

More Information
  • Received Date: May 31, 2017
  • Revised Date: September 20, 2017
  • Available Online: April 17, 2018
  • Published Date: February 28, 2018
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • Significant abnormal changes of water level in Huize well of Yunnan Provience were observed before several earthquakes, which indicates that the anomalies of water level in Huize well has good prediction efficiency to the earthquakes occurred surrounding the well. In this paper, the prediction efficiency of the water level in Huize well was tested by the Molchan diagram method, and the anomaly mechanism of water level was analyzed. The results show that the water level in Huize well has good prediction efficiency to earthquakes, and the anomalies can be used to predict the time and the site of the next earthquake. The prediction interval from anomaly appearance to next earthquake occurrence corresponds to three months, and the prediction area is the eastern part of Sichuan-Yunnan block. Because the Huize well was drilled in the junction of fault zones, water level in the well was sensitivity to the regional tectonic activity associated with the seismogenic process, which leads to the good prediction efficiency.
    • FullText(HTML)
    • References (25)
  • 车用太, 杨会年. 1985. 井孔水位微动态形成机理的探讨[J]. 地震地质, 7（3）: 43-50.

    Che Y T, Yang H N. 1985. Discussion on mechanism of microbehaviour of groundwater level in a borehole [J]. Seismology and Geology, 7（3）: 43-50 （in Chinese）.
    车用太. 1990. 地下水动态映震理论与预报地震方法[J]. 地震, 6: 19-25.

    Che Y T. 1990. On precursor theory and prediction method of groundwater behavior [J]. Earthquake, 6: 19-25 （in Chinese）.
    车用太, 刘五洲, 鱼金子, 高立新, 纪建国, 张淑亮, 王爱英. 2003. 井水位对地壳应力-应变响应灵敏度的研究[J]. 地震, 23（3）: 113-120.

    Che Y T, Liu W Z, Yu J Z, Gao L X, Ji J G, Zhang S L, Wang A Y. 2003. The study of responding sensitivity of well water level to crustal stress-strain [J]. Earthquake, 23（3）: 113-120 （in Chinese）.
    车用太, 刘成龙, 鱼金子, 官致君, 李军. 2008. 汶川 MS8.0 地震的地下流体与宏观异常及地震预测问题的思考[J]. 地震地质, 30（4）: 828-838.

    Che Y T, Liu C L, Yu J Z, Guan Z J, Li J. 2008. Underground fluid anomaly and macro anomaly of MS8.0 wenchuan earthquake and opinions about earthquake prediction [J]. Seismology and Geology, 30（4）: 828-838 （in Chinese）.
    付虹, 陈立德. 1997. 1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中短临预报及前兆异常特征（3）[J]. 地震研究, 20（4）: 345-356.

    Fu H, Chen L D, Luo P, Yang J Y, Zhang L, Liu X, Li Y Q, Liu Z Q, Shen B, Wang S Q. 1997. Medium-short-impending prediction and precursory anomalous characteristics on earthquake of M7.3 on July 12, 1995 in border area between China Yunnan’s Menglian and Myanmar[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 20（4）: 345-356 （in Chinese）.
    国家地震局预测预防司. 1997. 地下流体地震预报方法[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 30–32.
    Department of Prediction and Prevention, State Seismological Bureau. 1997. Earthquake Prediction Method of Underground Fluid[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 30–32 （in Chinese）.
    刘耀炜. 2006. 我国地震地下流体科学40年探索历程回顾[J]. 中国地震, 22（3）: 222-235.
    Liu Y W. 2006. Review of the research progress on the seismological science of underground fluid in China during last 40 years [J]. Earthquake Research in China, 22（3）: 222-235 （in Chinese）.
    田竹君, 谷圆珠. 1985. 地下水位微动态资料的分析与处理[J]. 地震地质, 7（3）: 51-59.
    Tian Z J, Gu Y Z. 1985. Analysis and processing of data on fluctuations of groundwater level [J]. Seismology and Geology, 7（3）: 51-59 （in Chinese）.
    王吉易, 宋贯一, 曹志成, 郑云贞, 张子广, 范雪芳, 黄辅琼, 杨明波. 2002. 地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题（1） [J]. 华北地震科学, 20（2）: 28-40.
    Wang J Y, Song G Y, Cao Z C, Zheng Y Z, Zhang Z G, Fan X F, Huang F Q, Yang M B. 2002. The mechanism of shallow layers anomaly caused by groundwater and its related question in earthquake prediction（1）[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 20（2）: 28-40 （in Chinese）.
    闻学泽, 杜方, 易桂喜, 龙锋, 范军, 杨攀新, 刘琦. 2013. 川滇交界东段昭通、莲峰断裂带的地震危险背景[J]. 地球物理学报, 56（10）: 3361-3372.
    Wen X Z, Du F, Yi G X, Long F, Fan J, Yang F X, Liu Q. 2013. Earthquake potential of the Zhaotong and Lianfeng fault zones of the eastern Sichuan-Yunnan border region[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 56（10）: 3361-3372 （in Chinese）.
    张培震, 邓起东, 张国民, 马瑾, 甘卫军, 闵伟, 毛凤英, 王琪. 2003. 中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J]. 中国科学D辑（地球科学）, 33（S1）: 12-20.
    Zhang P Z, Deng Q D, Zhang G M, Ma J, Gan W J, Min W, Mao F Y, Wang Q. 2003. Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China[J]. Science in China: Series D, 46(S2): 13-24.
    中国地震台网中心. 2017. 地震数据与管理服务系统[DB/OL]. [2017–06–01]. http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/index/main.

    China Earthquake Networks Center. 2017. Seismic data and management services[DB/OL]. [2017–06–01]. http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/index/main （in Chinese）.
    Jordan T H. 2006. Earthquake predictability brick by brick[J]. Seism Res Lett, 77（1）: 3-610.
    Molchan G M. 1990. Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J]. Phys Earth Planet Inter, 61（1/2）: 84-98.
    Molchan G M. 1991. Structure of optimal strategies of earthquake prediction [J].Tectonophysics, 193: 267-276.
    Montgomery D R, Manga M. 2003.Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes[J]. Science, 300: 2047-2049.
    Sato T, Matsumoto N, Kitagawa Y, Koizumi N, Takahashi M, Kuwahara Y, Ito H, Cho A, Statoh T, Ozawa K, Tasaka S. 2004. Changes in groundwater level associated with the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Earth Planets Space, 56（3）: 395-400.
    Zechar J D, Jordan T H. 2008. Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions [J]. Geophys J Inter, 172: 715-724.
    USGS. 2017. Earthquake hazards program[DB/OL]. [2017–04–20]. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
    • Related Articles

  • Related Articles

    Li Qiong, Fu Hong, Hu Xiaojing, Du jiayun, Yang Li. 2024: Statistical characteristics analysis on the relationship between radon anomalies and earthquakes in Yunnan region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 46(2): 340-352. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20230130
    Yang Chenyi, Shi Fuqiang, Ji Lingyun, Yang Yihai, Su Lina, Yang Min, Zheng Yi. 2024: Mechanism analysis of spatial distribution of the geophysical observation anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 46(2): 307-326. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20230118
    Gu Huidong, Jiang Jinzhong, Li Jiao, Chang Yuqiao, Yang Yuewen, Wang Guangming, Zhang Shuai, Yao Yuan. 2024: Focal depth determination of the MS5.0 earthquake in Mangshi，Yunnan，2023，and discussion on its seismogenic mechanism. Acta Seismologica Sinica: 1-20. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20240026
    Ma Yuchuan, Yan Rui, Hu Xiaojing. 2021: The anomaly characteristics of water temperature in the Eryuan well before the 2021 Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake in Yunnan，China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 43(5): 674-677. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20210142
    Wang Yixi, Sun Xiaolong, Shao Yongxin, Liu Shuangqing, Li Yue, Li He, Wang Xilong, Gong Yongjian. 2019: Mechanism of abnormal water level changes in the Wang 3 well of Tianjin. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(6): 757-768. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190065
    Zhang Fan, Han Xiaoming, Chen Lifeng, Li Juan, Li Shuanhu, Hu Bo. 2018: Spatio-temporal characteristics of b value in the northern margin of Ordos block and its earthquake prediction efficiency. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(6): 785-796. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180020
    Hu Xiaojing, Fu Hong, Li Qiong. 2018: Preliminary study on abnormal mechanism of groundwater level rising in southern Yunnan. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(5): 620-631. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170213
    Yang Mingbo, Yang Zhuzhuan, Zheng Yiwen, Ma Yuchuan, Wang Tongli, Han Kongyan, Cui Bowen, Xing Chengqi. 2017: Solid tide phenomenon of cold water source well temperature and its mechanism: Taking Huangcun well as an example. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 39(3): 420-428. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.03.011
    Ding Fenghe, Liu Yaowei, Han Xiaolei, Wei Jianmin, Zha Si. 2017: Water level anomaly analysis in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces based on the well tide and barometric pressure effect. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 39(2): 248-256. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.02.008
    Fu Hong, Wu Chengdong, Zhao Xiaoyan, Wang Qinglinag. 2014: Analysis on the anomaly of water level in Kaiyuan well, Yunnan. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 36(2): 292-298. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.02.013

Catalog

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (1433) PDF downloads (90) Cited by()
    Turn off MathJax
    Article Contents
    Abstract
    References
    Related Articles

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.   

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return