Probabilistic seismic slope displacement hazard analysis based on Newmark displacement model：Take the area of Tianshui，Gansu Province，China as an example

Earthquake-induced landslide is a kind of destructive earthquake secondary disaster, which could cause serious casualties and property damage. The Tianshui area of Gansu Province has suffered severe landslides caused by several strong earthquakes. In this paper, based on the model of potential seismic sources and the prediction equation of Newmark displacement, we adopt the method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to study the probabilistic seismic landslide hazard in Tianshui area, and to calculate the values of Newmark displacement under the 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Meanwhile, according to the Arias intensity under the 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years in Tianshui area, combined with the relationship between Newmark displacement and Arias intensity, we also calculate the Newmark displacement of potential landslides when Tianshui area suffered from the Arias intensity under the 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. We compare the two sets of the values of Newmark displacement obtained by these two different methods, and find that there are significant difference, but still can reflect the relative landslide hazard of each site in Tianshui area. According to the results of landslide hazard zoning, more than 60% of the area in Tianshui has high earthquake-landslide hazard, and more than 50% of the region in Tianshui has very high earthquake-landslide hazard. The research results of this paper can be used as the reference materials of seismic hazard and risk assessment of Tianshui area, and can also be used as the reference materials of city planning, land use planning, earthquake emergency preparedness and other public policy making in Tianshui area.