AN APPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF FAILURE RATE TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The concept of failure rate in the theory of reliability has been introduced to the study of earthquake prediction, and an attempt has been made to draw a set of new reliability function w1(t)=exp[-taecsin(lnt+)]It is found that:1. The parameter a may take as a numerical criterion to judge the three stages of seismic activity, i.e. a 1 for the principal energy release stage.2. The failure rate function can represent adequately the fluctuation of the seismic activity in each of the stages mentioned-above and can be used to judge the activity level in each stage.3. When c = 0, the new reliability function will be degenerated into the Weibull reliability function, that is, the latter is a special case of the former.A test has been made by applying the new reliability function to the Tangshan Earthquake (Ms =7.8), the Xinfengjiang Earthquake (Ms= 6.1), and to the seismicity of the seismic zones of Eastern Yunnan and of SB China coastal region with satisfactory results.