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Zhang Zhaocheng, Zhang Wei. 2016: Discussion on scientific and practical problems of feasibility of earthquake prediction. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(4): 564-579.
Citation: Zhang Zhaocheng, Zhang Wei. 2016: Discussion on scientific and practical problems of feasibility of earthquake prediction. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(4): 564-579.
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Discussion on scientific and practical problems of feasibility of earthquake prediction

  • Institute of Earthquake Science， China Earthquake Administration， Beijing 100036， China

More Information
  • Received Date: May 28, 2016
  • Accepted Date: June 21, 2016
  • Published Date: June 30, 2016
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • The best way for the memory of the 40th anniversary of the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake is to review the scientific practice of earthquake prediction research in China, summarize its progress, and discuss scientific and practical problems that we have faced to and prospect for the future. The key to realize earthquake prediction is the short and imminent prediction. Whether there are earthquake precursors, whether such precursors can be observed, and whether the precursors can be used to predict earthquakes and reduce the disasters, which are the questions that the earthquake prediction research must answer. In other words, positive answers to such questions confirm the feasi-bility of earthquake predictions. This paper discusses key scientific and practical problems, such as the detection of earthquake precursors, the physical basis of earthquake precursors, the debate on whether earthquake can be predicted, and the importance of observations, and then comes to the conclusion that there are precursors to earthquake though they are very complex, and it is possible to predict earthquakes. Earthquake prediction research should be developed from phase of feasibility study into the phase of deep exploration.
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    • References (74)
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