A statistical study on the prediction of maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes

Based on the collected data of 102 global reservoir-induced earthquakes and by using the method of membership function analysis, we comprehensively analyzed the relationship between reservoir-induced earthquakes and basic properties of the reservoir, lithology of the epicentral region, basic seismic intensity in the reservoir region and fault types of the epicentral region. From a statistical point of view, a method of predicting the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes is proposed. Through the Fisher discriminant analysis and a retrospective test, the relative error of the predicted magnitude and correct recognition ratio are given. The overall prediction result is rather satisfactory and can provide a statistical basis for reservoir seismic fortification and judgment of the possible maximum earthquake magnitude in the future.