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Wei Wang, Yuanzhong Lu. 1991: THE RESEARCH OF A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WITH SEISMOLOGICAL METHODS. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(3): 328-337.
Citation: Wei Wang, Yuanzhong Lu. 1991: THE RESEARCH OF A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WITH SEISMOLOGICAL METHODS. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(3): 328-337.
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THE RESEARCH OF A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WITH SEISMOLOGICAL METHODS

  • Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province Hefei 230031, China

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  • Published Date: September 01, 2011
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  • In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to earthquake comprehensive prediction, and it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences and computing the comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of the method the 18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China are tested with the seismologic anomalies, and the comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. Finally some problems in the application are discussed.
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    • References (1)
  • [1] 赵瑞清, 1987.专家系统原理, 129——138气象出版社, 北京.

    [2] 张肇诚主编、1988中国震例.地震出版社, 北京.

    [3] 王炜、庄昆元、戴维乐、黄冰树、1991.专家系统的不精确推理方法在地震预报中的应用, 地震预报方法实用化研究文集、综合预报专辑, 337——388、地震出版社, 北京.

    [4] 王炜,1989.地震发生方式参数P值的空问扫描.地震, 1: 39——45

    [1] 赵瑞清, 1987.专家系统原理, 129——138气象出版社, 北京.

    [2] 张肇诚主编、1988中国震例.地震出版社, 北京.

    [3] 王炜、庄昆元、戴维乐、黄冰树、1991.专家系统的不精确推理方法在地震预报中的应用, 地震预报方法实用化研究文集、综合预报专辑, 337——388、地震出版社, 北京.

    [4] 王炜,1989.地震发生方式参数P值的空问扫描.地震, 1: 39——45
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