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ZHANG JIAN-ZHONGup, SONG LIANG-YUup2cmult. 1981: ON THE METHOD OF ESTIMATING B-VALUE AND ITS STANDARD ERRORThe Monte Carlo Method of Estimating the Accuracy of b-value. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 3(3): 292-301.
Citation: ZHANG JIAN-ZHONGup, SONG LIANG-YUup2cmult. 1981: ON THE METHOD OF ESTIMATING B-VALUE AND ITS STANDARD ERRORThe Monte Carlo Method of Estimating the Accuracy of b-value. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 3(3): 292-301.
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ON THE METHOD OF ESTIMATING B-VALUE AND ITS STANDARD ERRORThe Monte Carlo Method of Estimating the Accuracy of b-value

  • 1. Computing Center, Academia Sinica; 2. Institute of Geophysics, State Seismologieal Bureau

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  • Published Date: August 31, 2011
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  • In attempting to stuty the problem of earthquake prediction, the law of magnitude and frequency of earthquakes has recently been employed to search for precursors of large earthquakes and to examine the variation with time and space of the b-value. A question arises that in order to comply with the requirements of earthquake prediction, the time length of earthquake data chosen, should be short. As a consequence, the number of earthquakes used will be greatly reduced, giving rise to increased error in the estimation of the b-value.Based on the law, of magnitude and frequency of earthquakes of Gutenberg and Richter, various methods for estimating b-value have been discussed in this paper, namely the maximum likehood estimate, the moment estimate, the simple linear and non-linear least square estimates ect., of which the respective accuracies are given and compared for their adequacy. Included in this paper for reference is an error chart for b-value estimation, computed by the Monte Carlo Method.
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    • References (1)
  • [1] 石本已四雄, 飯田汲事.微動計による地震溉测(一)地震動の大さ, 空简的分布, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute Tokyo Imperial University, 17, 443——478, 1939.

    [2] B. Gutenberg, & C. F. Richter, Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, Princeton University Press, 1949.

    [3] 李全林, 于禄, 陈锦标, 郝柏林, b值时空扫描, 地球物理学报, 21, 2, 1978.

    [4] 马鸿庆, 华北地区几次大震前的b值异常变化, 地球物理学报, 21, 2, 1978.

    [5] 张建中, 蒙特卡罗方法(I) (II), 数学的实践与认识, 1, 2, 1974.

    [6] 中国科学院计算中心概率统计组编著, 概率统计计算, 科学出版社, 1979.

    [1] 石本已四雄, 飯田汲事.微動計による地震溉测(一)地震動の大さ, 空简的分布, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute Tokyo Imperial University, 17, 443——478, 1939.

    [2] B. Gutenberg, & C. F. Richter, Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, Princeton University Press, 1949.

    [3] 李全林, 于禄, 陈锦标, 郝柏林, b值时空扫描, 地球物理学报, 21, 2, 1978.

    [4] 马鸿庆, 华北地区几次大震前的b值异常变化, 地球物理学报, 21, 2, 1978.

    [5] 张建中, 蒙特卡罗方法(I) (II), 数学的实践与认识, 1, 2, 1974.

    [6] 中国科学院计算中心概率统计组编著, 概率统计计算, 科学出版社, 1979.
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