Advanced Search
Guo Xing, Pan Hua, Li Jinchen, Hou Chunlin. 2018: A method for computing the recurrence probability of large earthquakes based on empirical distribution. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(4): 506-518. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170167
Citation: Guo Xing, Pan Hua, Li Jinchen, Hou Chunlin. 2018: A method for computing the recurrence probability of large earthquakes based on empirical distribution. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(4): 506-518. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170167
shu

A method for computing the recurrence probability of large earthquakes based on empirical distribution

  • 1.

    Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center，Ministry of Environment Protection，Beijing 100082，China

  • 2.

    Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China

More Information
  • Received Date: August 23, 2017
  • Revised Date: March 22, 2018
  • Available Online: July 01, 2018
  • Published Date: June 30, 2018
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • On the basis of historic recurrence and seismotectonic analogy, we presented a method for calculating earthquake recurrence probability in a period in the future by using empirical distribution function. It adopted the Monte Carlo method to sample from a lot of earthquake sequences to simulate the occurrence of future large earthquakes, so as to achieve statistical large earthquake occurrence probability. Besides, this method never makes assumption that the earthquake recurrence data is according with a certain kind of distribution model. Taking the Luhuo segment and the Daofu segment along the Xianshuihe fault zone as examples, the calculation results showed that the large earthquake occurrence probability in the future 50 years on those two segments are 0.15 and 0.31, respectively.
    • FullText(HTML)
    • References (70)
  • 曹娟娟, 刘百篪, 闻学泽. 2003. 西秦岭北缘断裂带特征地震平均复发间隔的确定和地震危险性评价[J]. 地震研究, 26（4）: 372-381.
    Cao J J, Liu B C, Wen X Z. 2003. Determination of the average recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes and estimate of earthquake risk on northern Xiqinling faults[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 26（4）: 372-381 （in Chinese）.
    柴炽章, 廖玉华, 张文孝, 许文俊, 申旭辉, 田勤俭. 2001. 灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征[J]. 地震地质, 23（1）: 15-23.
    Chai Z Z, Liao Y H, Zhang W X, Xu W J, Shen X H, Tian Q J. 2001. Late Quaternary paleoearthquakes and their rupture features along the Lingwu fault[J]. Seismology and Geology, 23（1）: 15-23 （in Chinese）.
    陈柏林, 王春宇, 宫红良, 刘建民, 张永双, 刘建生. 2007. 关于河西走廊盆地榆木山北缘断裂晚第四纪活动特征的新认识[J]. 地质通报, 26（8）: 976-983.
    Chen B L, Wang C Y, Gong H L, Liu J M, Zhang Y S, Liu J S. 2007. A new understanding of the characteristics of late Quaternary activity of the northern Yumushan marginal fault in the Hexi corridor, northwestern China[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 26（8）: 976-983 （in Chinese）.
    陈汉尧, 胡聿贤. 1994. 不确定性的Bootstrap估计及其应用[J]. 地震工程与工程震动, 14（1）: 1-7.
    Chen H Y, Hu Y X. 1994. Bootstrap estimation of uncertainty and its application[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 14（1）: 1-7 （in Chinese）.
    陈立春. 2002. 河套断陷带的古地震、强震复发规律和未来可能强震地点[D]. 北京: 中国地震局地质研究所: 49–67.
    Chen L C. 2002. Paleoearthquakes, the Law of Strong Earthquake Recurrence and Potential Sites for the Occurrence of Future Strong Earthquakes in the Hetao Fault-Depression Zone[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration: 49–67 （in Chinese）.
    丁锐, 任俊杰, 张世民. 2009. 五台山北麓断裂南峪口段晚第四纪活动与古地震[J]. 中国地震, 25（1）: 41-53.
    Ding R, Ren J J, Zhang S M. 2009. Late Quaternary activity and paleoearthquakes along the Nanyukou segment of the northern piedmont fault of the Wutai mountain[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 25（1）: 41-53 （in Chinese）.
    甘卫军, 刘百箎, 黄雅虹. 1999. 板内大震原地准周期复发间隔的概率分布[J]. 西北地震学报, 21（1）: 7-16.
    Gan W J, Liu B C, Huang Y H. 1999. Probability distribution of recurrence intervals of intraplate large earthquakes[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 21（1）: 7-16 （in Chinese）.
    戈澍谟, 柏美祥, 徐道尊, 向志勇. 1986. 可可托海–二台活断层的大地震复现期[J]. 地震地质, 8（3）: 1-9.
    Ge S M, Bo M X, Xu D Z, Xiang Z Y. 1986. Recurrence intervals of major earthquakes for the Koktokay–Ertai fault[J]. Seismology and Geology, 8（3）: 1-9 （in Chinese）.
    胡道功, 吴中海, 吴珍汉, 赵希涛, 叶培盛. 2007. 东昆仑断裂带库赛湖段晚第四纪古地震研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 27（1）: 27-34.
    Hu D G, Wu Z H, Wu Z H, Zhao X T, Ye P S. 2007. Late Quaternary paleoseismic history on the Kusai lake segment of east Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibet[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 27（1）: 27-34 （in Chinese）.
    黄玮琼, 李文香, 曹学锋. 1994. 中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二——分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图象[J]. 地震学报, 16（4）: 423-432.
    Huang W Q, Li W X, Cao X F. 1994. Study of the completeness of the continental earthquake catalog of China （Ⅱ）: The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 16（4）: 423-432 （in Chinese）.
    李正芳, 周本刚, 冉洪流. 2012. 运用古地震数据评价东昆仑断裂带东段未来百年的强震危险性[J]. 地球物理学报, 55（9）: 3051-3065.
    Li Z F, Zhou B G, Ran H L. 2012. Strong earthquake risk assessment of eastern segment on the East Kunlun fault in the next 100 years based on paleo-earthquake data[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 55（9）: 3051-3065 （in Chinese）.
    刘百篪, 曹娟娟, 袁道阳, 何文贵. 2008. 青藏高原北部活动地块内部的活断层定量资料[J]. 地震地质, 30（1）: 161-175.
    Liu B C, Cao J J, Yuan D Y, He W G. 2008. Quantitative data of active faults within the active tectonic block in north Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Seismology and Geology, 30（1）: 161-175 （in Chinese）.
    刘静, 汪良谋. 1996. 运用活断层资料评价汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J]. 地震学报, 18（4）: 427-436.
    Liu J, Wang L M. 1996. Using active fault data to evaluate long-term earthquake risk in Fenwei earthquake zone[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 18（4）: 427-436 （in Chinese）.
    刘小龙, 袁道阳. 2004. 青海德令哈巴音郭勒河断裂带的新活动特征[J]. 西北地震学报, 26（4）: 303-308.
    Liu X L, Yuan D Y. 2004. Study on the new active features of Bayinguole river active fault, Delingha, Qinghai Province[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 26（4）: 303-308 （in Chinese）.
    闵伟, 张培震, 邓起东. 2000. 区域古地震复发行为的初步研究[J]. 地震学报, 22（2）: 163-170.
    Min W, Zhang P Z, Deng Q D. 2000. Primary study on regional paleoearthquake recurrence behavior[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 22（2）: 163-170 （in Chinese）.
    冉洪流, 何宏林. 2006. 鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥6.7）及复发间隔研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 49（1）: 153-161.
    Ran H L, He H L. 2006. Research on the magnitude and recurrence interval of characterized earthquakes with M≥6.7 along the northwestern portion of the Xianshuihe fault zone in western Sichuan, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 49（1）: 153-161 （in Chinese）.
    冉勇康, 邓起东, 杨晓平, 张晚霞, 李如成, 向宏发. 1997. 1679年三河-平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔[J]. 地震地质, 19（3）: 193-201.
    Ran Y K, Deng Q D, Yang X P, Zhang W X, Li R C, Xiang H F. 1997. Paleoearthquakes and recurrence interval on the seismogenic fault of 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake, Hebei and Beijing[J]. Seismology and Geology, 19（3）: 193-201 （in Chinese）.
    冉勇康, 邓起东. 1998. 海原断裂的古地震及特征地震破裂的分级性讨论[J]. 第四纪研究, 18（3）: 271-277.
    Ran Y K, Deng Q D. 1998. Paleoearthquakes along Haiyuan fault and discussion of grading on rupture of large earthquakes[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 18（3）: 97-107 （in Chinese）.
    冉勇康, 张培震, 陈立春. 2003. 河套断陷带大青山山前断裂晚第四纪古地震完整性研究[J]. 地学前缘, 10（S1）: 207-216.
    Ran Y K, Zhang P Z, Chen L C. 2003. Research on the completeness of paleoseismic activity history since late Quaternary along the Daqingshan piedmont fault in Hetao Depression Zone, North China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 10（S1）: 207-216 （in Chinese）.
    苏有锦, 李永莉, 李忠华, 易桂喜, 刘丽芳. 2003. 川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析[J]. 地震研究, 26（S1）: 10-16.
    Su Y J, Li Y L, Li Z H, Yi G X, Liu L F. 2003. Analysis of minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalog in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 26（S1）: 10-16 （in Chinese）.
    滕瑞增, 金瑶全, 李西侯, 苏向州. 1994. 西秦岭北缘断裂带新活动特征[J]. 西北地震学报, 16（2）: 85-90.
    Teng R Z, Jin Y Q, Li X H, Su X Z. 1994. Recent activity characteristics of the fault zone at Northern edge of Western Qinling MT[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 16（2）: 85-90 （in Chinese）.
    王华林. 1995. 1668年郯城8. 5级地震断裂的全新世滑动速率、古地震和强震复发周期[J]. 西北地震学报, 17（4）: 1-12.
    Wang H L. 1995. Holocene displacement rate, paleoearthquakes and recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes along the 1668 Tancheng earthquake （MS＝8.5） fault. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 17（4）: 1-12 （in Chinese）.
    谢新生, 江娃利, 王瑞, 王焕贞, 冯西英. 2003. 山西大同盆地口泉断裂全新世古地震活动[J]. 地震地质, 25（3）: 359-374.
    Xie X S, Jiang W L, Wang R, Wang H Z, Feng X Y. 2003. Holocene paleo-seismic activities on the Kouquan fault zone, Datong basin, Shanxi province[J]. Seismology and Geology, 25（3）: 359-374 （in Chinese）.
    袁道阳, 刘百箎, 吕太乙, 何文贵, 刘小凤. 1997. 北祁连山东段活动断裂带古地震特征[J]. 华南地震, 17（2）: 24-31.
    Yuan D Y, Liu B C, Lü T Y, He W G, Liu X F. 1997. Palaeoearthquake features along the eastern segment of north Qilianshan active fault zone[J]. South China Journal of Seismology, 17（2）: 24-31 （in Chinese）.
    袁道阳, 张培震, 刘小龙, 刘百箎, 郑文俊, 何文贵. 2004. 青海鄂拉山断裂带晚第四纪构造活动及其所反映的青藏高原东北缘的变形机制[J]. 地学前缘, 11（4）: 393-402.
    Yuan D Y, Zhang P Z, Liu X L, Liu B C, Zheng W J, He W G. 2004. The tectonic activity and deformation features during the late Quaternary of Elashan Mountain active fault zone in Qinghai Province and its implication for the deformation of the northeastern margins of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 11（4）: 393-402 （in Chinese）.
    张培震, 闵伟, 邓起东. 2003. 海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律[J]. 中国科学（D辑）, 33（8）: 705-713.
    Zhang P Z, Min W, Deng Q D. 2003. Paleoearthquake and strong earthquake recurrence of Haiyuan active fault zone[J]. Science in China （Series D）, 33（8）: 705-713 （in Chinese）.
    郑文俊, 袁道阳, 何文贵. 2004. 祁连山东段天桥沟—黄羊川断裂古地震活动习性研究[J]. 地震地质, 26（4）: 645-657.
    Zheng W J, Yuan D Y, He W G. 2004. Characteristics of palaeo-earthquake activity along the active Tianqiaogou–Huangyangchuan fault on the eastern section of the Qilianshan mountains[J]. Seismology and Geology, 26（4）: 645-657 （in Chinese）.
    邹谨敞, 虢顺民, 陈志泰, 代华光. 1993. 榆木山东麓断裂带晚第四纪活动特征的初步研究[J]. 高原地震, 5（2）: 31-35.
    Zou J C, Guo S M, Chen Z T, Dai H G. 1993. Preliminary study on the late Quaternary active feature of the Yumushan eastern marginal fault zone[J]. Earthquake Research in Plateau, 5（2）: 31-35 （in Chinese）.
    Efron B. 1979. 1977 Rietz lecture: Bootstrap methods: Another look at the Jacknife[J]. Ann Statist, 7: 1-26.
    Efron B, Tibshirani R. 1986. Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy[J]. Statist Sci, 1: 54-77.
    Ellsworth W L, Matthews M V, Nadeau R M, Nishenko S P, Reasenberg P A, Simpson R W. 1999. A Physically-Based Earthquake Recurrence Model for Estimation of Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities[R]. Reston: US Geological Survey Open-File Report: 99–522.
    Hagiwara Y. 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain[J]. Tectonophysics, 23（3）: 313-318.
    Matthews M V, Ellsworth W L, Reasenberg P A. 2002. A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 92（6）: 2233-2250.
    Nishenko S P, Buland R. 1987. A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 77（4）: 1382-1399.
    Parsons T. 2008. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California[J]. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth, 113（B3）: B03302.
    Reid H F. 1910. The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: The Mechanics of the Earthquake[M]. Washington DC: The Carnegie Institution of Washington: 43–47.
    Rikitake T. 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as estimated from crustal strain[J]. Tectonophysics, 23（3）: 299-312.
    Rohatgi V K. 1984. Statistical Inference[M]. New York: John Wiley: 1–940.
    Shimazaki K, Nakata T. 1980. Time-predictable recurrence of large earthquake. Geophys Res Lett, 7: 279-282.
    Utsu T. 1972. Large Earthquakes Near Hokkaido and the Expectancy of the Occurrence of a Large Earthquake Off Nemuro [R]. Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 7: 7–13.
    Utsu T. 1984. Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes[J]. Bull Earthquake Res Inst, Univ Tokyo, 59（1）: 53-66.
    Wesnousky S G. 1986. Earthquakes, Quaternary faults, and seismic hazard in California[J]. J Geophys, 91（B12）: 12587-12631.
    • Related Articles

  • Cited by

    Periodical cited type(9)

    1. 丁俊柯，马传璧，张万辉，赵建明，王震坤. 基于EEMD方法提取唐山井水位固体潮响应特征. 地下水. 2024(04): 63-65 .
    2. 吴明，杨晓东，刘洁. 石泉井水位异常与九寨沟7.0级地震关联性探讨. 地震工程学报. 2023(02): 441-446 .
    3. 吕芳，穆慧敏，李艳，郭文峰，姚林鹏，宫静芝. 利用微水试验方法研究井-含水层水力参数及其与地震的对应关系. 地震地质. 2023(03): 638-651 .
    4. 刘伟，白细民，吕少杰，史浙明，齐之钰，何冠儒. 基于井水位气压效应计算含水层的水力参数. 地震地质. 2023(03): 652-667 .
    5. 李继业，晏锐，张思萌，胡澜缤，孟令蕾，周晨. 井水位潮汐响应与小地震调制作用的关系. 地震地质. 2023(03): 668-688 .
    6. 刘阁，姬霄鹤，郭少峰，李志涛. 范县井水位对远场大震的同震响应特征. 华北地震科学. 2023(03): 74-79 .
    7. 洪旭瑜，陈祥开，秦双龙，林加宝. M_S≥6.0地震引起的永安井水位同震响应特征研究. 华南地震. 2023(03): 39-45 .
    8. 胡米东，毛华锋，陈启林，王皓，张杰，霍雨佳，黄群. 茅山断裂带周边地区流体井水位观测特征及机理分析. 高原地震. 2022(04): 21-28 .
    9. 何冠儒，史浙明. 地下水对气压和固体潮响应研究进展. 地震研究. 2021(04): 541-549 .

    Other cited types(0)

Catalog

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (1588) PDF downloads (75) Cited by(9)
    Turn off MathJax
    Article Contents
    Abstract
    References

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.   

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return