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Song Cheng, Zhang Yongxian, Xia Caiyun, Zhang Shengfeng, Gao Bingying, Zheng Shilu. 2018: Retrospective test on the forecasting efficacy of PI models with different parameters for the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(4): 491-505. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170170
Citation: Song Cheng, Zhang Yongxian, Xia Caiyun, Zhang Shengfeng, Gao Bingying, Zheng Shilu. 2018: Retrospective test on the forecasting efficacy of PI models with different parameters for the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(4): 491-505. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170170
shu

Retrospective test on the forecasting efficacy of PI models with different parameters for the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake

  • 1.

    Tianjin Earthquake Agency，Tianjin 300201，China

  • 2.

    Institute of Earthquake Forecasting，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China

  • 3.

    China Earthquake Networks Center，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100045，China

  • 4.

    Liaoning Earthquake Agency，Shenyang 110034，China

  • 5.

    Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China

  • 6.

    Shandong Earthquake Agency，Jinan 250014，China

More Information
  • Received Date: September 03, 2017
  • Revised Date: December 11, 2017
  • Available Online: July 09, 2018
  • Published Date: June 30, 2018
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • In this paper, the local area （32.0°N–46.0°N, 136.0°E–148.0°E） of Japan was chosen to be the studied region to verify the predictability of the pattern informatics （PI） method under different models with different parameters, using the receiver-operating characteristic （ROC） curve test andR score test. Pattern informatics （PI） method was applied to retrospec-tive study on the forecasting of large earthquakes in this region, especially the 2011 Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake. Different forecasting hotspot maps with different parameters were obtained. The grid size were 0.5°×0.5° and 1.0°×1.0°, and forecasting window length was 5 to 10 years respectively. The results showed that, PI method could forecast the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake under most of the models, and the hotspots appeared in MW9.0 earthquake’s epicentral grid or its Moore neighborhood grids. The ROC test andR score test analysis revealed that the forecasting effect was better for the models with larger grid size and longer window length compared to other models.
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