The evaluation method for the accuracy of short-term earthquake prediction

Scientific evaluation of prediction effect is a problem that must be solved in prediction discipline. There are two kinds of evaluation of earthquake prediction effect, one is the evaluation of single prediction, the other is the statistical evaluation of multiple prediction effects of a method. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation method for the accuracy of single earthquake prediction, which is called accuracy score method （abbreviated as " A score” ）. In view of the present situation of earthquake prediction in China, this paper stipulates that the accuracy score is determined by the corresponding situation between prediction and actual earthquake （abbreviated as " correspondence score” ） and the exactitude of time, space and strong prediction window （abbreviated as" exactitude score” ）. This paper also shows the calculation method of correspondence score and exactitude score. The opinions and examples of the short-term prediction reported by Sichuan Earthquake Agency in February 2013 show that this method is scientific and reasonable, and can be used for the evaluation and unified management of short-term earthquake prediction.