Advanced Search
Yang J S，Zhang C，Li Z T，Li J，Qu Y X，Ji G D. 2021. An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory. Acta Seismologica Sinica，43（2）：227−236. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20200124
Citation: Yang J S，Zhang C，Li Z T，Li J，Qu Y X，Ji G D. 2021. An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory. Acta Seismologica Sinica，43（2）：227−236. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20200124
shu

An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory

  • 1.

    Institute of Disaster Prevention，Hebei Sanhe 065201，China

  • 2.

    National Institute of Natural Hazards，Beijing 100085，China

  • 3.

    China Ordnance Industry Standardization Research Institute，Beijing 100089，China

More Information
  • Received Date: July 18, 2020
  • Revised Date: November 21, 2020
  • Available Online: June 17, 2021
  • Published Date: March 14, 2021
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • In order to send out earthquake alarm information timely, accurately and reliably, an early earthquake alarm method using P-wave double-parameter alarm method based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. Based on 355 earthquake data recorded at Sichuan Province of China Earthquake Networks Center, the median period τc and ground motion amplitudes Pd in the first 3 seconds after P-wave triggering are calculated. Combined with Bayesian theory, the prediction model of magnitude and peak ground acceleration is established. Taking the magnitude M＝4.5 and PGA＝120 cm/s2 as the alarm threshold, the seismic hazard discrimination model is established. Compared with the traditional fitting method, the simulation analysis of earthquake early warming based on Bayesian theory, and then the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is taken as an example to carry out the earthquake hazard identification. The experimentalresults show that early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory is 15.15% lower than the traditional fitting method, which can can quickly and accurately estimate the magnitude and peak acceleration, and effectively assess the hazard of earthquake, which can provide data support and decision-making basis for earthquake monitoring and alarming.
    • FullText(HTML)
    • References (29)
  • 方嘉治,张颖,汪逵,董奕. 2020. 地震动场地影响校正在烈度速报中的应用研究[J]. 华南地震,40(3):17–26.
    Fang J Z,Zhang Y,Wang K,Dong Y. 2020. The research on application of site correction of ground motion in rapid reporting of seismic intensity[J]. South China Journal of Seismology,40(3):17–26 (in Chinese).
    冯继威.2019. 大震地震动场的实时估计[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所:1–164.
    Feng J W. 2019.Real-time Estimation of the Ground Motion Field of Large Earthquakes[D]. Harbin: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Adminiistration: 1–164 （in Chinese）.
    郭凯,温瑞智,彭克银. 2016. 地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析[J]. 地震学报,38(1):146–154. doi: 10.11939/jass.2016.01.015
    Guo K,Wen R Z,Peng K Y. 2016. Effectiveness evaluation and social benefits analyses on earthquake early warning system[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,38(1):146–154.
    郝美仙,周银兴,张建中,张珂,尹战军. 2020. τc方法在内蒙古地区预警震级计算中的应用[J]. 中国地震,36(1):136–145.
    Hao M X,Zhou Y X,Zhang J Z,Zhang K,Yin Z J. 2020. Application of τc method in the early warning magnitude calculation in Inner Mongolia region[J]. Earthouake Research in China,36(1):136–145.
    李世杰,吕悦军,刘静伟. 2018. 古登堡-里希特定律中的b值统计样本量研究[J]. 震灾防御技术,13(3):636–645.
    Li S J,Lü Y J,Liu J W. 2018. Research on b-value statistical sample size in Gutenberg Richter law[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,13(3):636–645 (in Chinese).
    龙承厚,赖敏,余桦,黎大虎. 2011. 地震有效峰值加速度与地震烈度相关性研究[J]. 四川地震,2011(2):26–31.
    Long C H,Lai M,Yu H,Li D H. 2011. Study on the correction between effective peak ground acceleration and seismic intensity[J]. Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2011(2):26–31 (in Chinese).
    马强,李水龙,李山有,陶冬旺. 2014. 不同地震动参数与地震烈度的相关性分析[J]. 地震工程与工程振动,34(4):83–92.
    Ma Q,Li S L,LiS Y,Tao D W. 2014. On the correlation of ground motion parameters withseismic intensity[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,34(4):83–92 (in Chinese).
    宋晋东,教聪聪,李山有,侯宝瑞. 2018. 基于地震P波双参数阈值的高速铁路Ⅰ级地震警报预测方法[J]. 中国铁道科学,39(1):138–144. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4632.2018.01.19
    Song J D,Jiao C C,Li S Y,Hou B R. 2018. Prediction method of first-level earthquake warning for high speed railway based on two-parameter threshold of seismic P-wave[J]. China Railway Science,39(1):138–144 (in Chinese).
    武俊奇. 2016. 基于Bayes原理的渐进地面震动强度预警与P波特征参数研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学: 37–70.
    Wu J Q. 2016. Research on Progressive Ground Motion Intensity Warning Based on Bayes Principle and Characteristic Parameters of the P-Wave[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University: 37–70 （in Chinese）.
    张晁军,陈会忠,蔡晋安,侯燕燕,许洪华,李卫东. 2014. 地震预警工程的若干问题探讨[J]. 工程研究-跨学科视野中的工程,6(4):344–370.
    Zhang C J,Chen H Z,Cai J A,Hou Y Y,Xu H H,Li W D. 2014. Discussion on some issues of earthquake early warning engineering[J]. Journal of Engineering Studies,6(4):344–370 (in Chinese).
    赵岑. 2013. P波预警中的震级预测和PGA、PGV估算研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学: 33–61.
    Zhao C. 2013. Study on the Characteristics of P-Wave to Estimate Magnitude and PGA, PGV in the Field of Earthquake Early Warning[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University: 33–61 （in Chinese）.
    中国地震台网中心. 2020. 国家地震科学数据中心[DB/OL]. [2020-03-07]. http://data.earthquake.cn.
    China Earthquake Networks Center. 2020. China earthquake data center[DB/OL]. [2020-03-07]. http://data.earthquake.cn （in Chinese）.
    周银兴,张素灵,郭凯,张岩. 2015. 高速铁路地震预警系统控车方案研究[J]. 震灾防御技术,10(1):116–125. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20150112
    Zhou Y X,Zhang S L,Guo K,Zhang Y. 2015. High speed train control strategy in earthquake early warning system[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,10(1):116–125 (in Chinese).
    Iervolino I,Convertito V,Giorgio M,Manfredi G,Zollo A. 2006. Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems[J]. J Earthq Eng,10(6):867–875.
    Kanamori H. 2005. Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci,33:195–214. doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122626
    Zollo A,Amoroso O,Lancieri M,Wu Y M,Kanamori H. 2010. A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks[J]. Geophys J Int,183(2):963–974. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04765.x
    • Related Articles

  • Related Articles

    Shang Junbin, Ma Lan, Zhang Qiaoli, Cao Xi, Li Yangyang, Zhang Guiwen, Gong Dandan. 2025: Feasibility study of DDL-1 gas radon meter applied to daily observation of gas radon measurement in Jiayuguan faults. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 47(1): 145-151. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20230061
    Zhang Shangrong, He Jiaman, Tang Xiang, Xiong Yang. 2024: Statistical analysis of near-fault ground motion acceleration peak ratio and pulse characteristics. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 46(6): 1051-1062. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20240001
    Yuan Mingming, Li Xiaojun, Wang Yushi. 2024: Regular deviations of response spectral accelerations based on strong-motion records from KiK-net. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 46(5): 877-892. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20230010
    Liu Ping, Xu Zhengwei, Luo Qifeng. 2022: Advances in ground motion attenuation relationship of Chinese mainland. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 44(5): 797-809. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20220117
    Zhao Xiaofen, Wen Zengping. 2022: Review on issues of near-fault velocity pulse-like ground motions. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 44(5): 765-782. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20220141
    Yu Ruifang, Wang Shaoqing, Chen Kexu, Wu Jingwu, Li Bangwu. 2020: Estimation and adjustment of eigenperiod of response spectrum of near-fault pulse-type ground motion. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 42(4): 471-481. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190155
    Zhao Xiaofen, Wen Zengping, Chen Bo, Liu Yijun. 2019: Intensity measures of pulse-like ground motions in the full periods. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(4): 536-547. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190002
    Luo Quanbo, Chen Xueliang, Gao Mengtan, Li Tiefei. 2019: Numerical simulation of near-field pulse-like ground motion for the Shuantung fault in Taiwan region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(3): 377-390. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180103
    Zhu Yongli, Li Dahu, Zhu Jiangang. 2017: Rapid evaluation method of life loss in earthquakes based on strong ground motion records. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 39(1): 143-154. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.01.012
    Wen Ruizhi. 2016: A review on the characteristics of Chinese strong ground motion recordings. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(4): 550-563.

  • Cited by

    Periodical cited type(3)

    1. 卜风贤，杨云. 民国九年(1920)海原大地震的山水刻画与灾区修复. 中国农史. 2024(01): 107-116 .
    2. 李佳怡，徐岳仁，张军龙，母若愚. 基于多源卫星影像的同震地表破裂带迹象变化识别——以2001年昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震为例. 地震学报. 2024(06): 982-1001 . 本站查看
    3. 高云鹏，刘静，韩龙飞，邵延秀，姚文倩，徐晶，胡贵明，王子君，屈孜屹，徐恩民. 古地震事件震级或强度大小限定的讨论. 地质力学学报. 2023(05): 704-719 .

    Other cited types(1)

Catalog

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (715) PDF downloads (50) Cited by(4)
    Turn off MathJax
    Article Contents
    Abstract
    References
    Related Articles

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.   

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return